【NTDTV Vision】Two moves to attack Taiwan?Analysis: I don’t understand the world

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Hello everyone, today is March 7th, Tuesday.

[The CCP’s military spending increased by 7.2% for war preparations]

The CCP plans to increase military expenditure by 7.2% this year, claiming that it will be used to comprehensively strengthen military training and preparations and technological development. However, the analysis believes thatXi JinpingThey do not understand the world at all, which leads to conflicts with almost all countries. Against this background, it is very difficult for the CCP to attack Taiwan.

March 5th,CCP FinanceThe Ministry of Defense disclosed in the “Government Budget Draft” that this year’s military budget is 1,553.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, setting the second highest record in the past five years. The annual growth rate of the defense budget is 7.5% in 2019, 6.6% in 2020, 6.8% in 2021, and 7.1% in 2022.

On the same day, Li Keqiang, who is about to step down as Premier of the State Council of the Communist Party of China, pointed out that China’s GDP growth rate this year will be about 5%, making it the lowest economic growth target since 1994.

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becauseSino-US relationsTensions, coupled with factors such as intensified regional conflicts and international turmoil, this year the CCP’s military spending has risen again, and it has far exceeded the set GDP growth target. Therefore, it has attracted the attention of the outside world.

According to Reuters, Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the Rajaratnam Institute of International Studies in Singapore, said that the CCP’s defense spending exceeding economic growth forecasts shows that the CCP expects its external security environment to face greater pressure, especially from the United States and the Taiwan issue.

Tan Kefei, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense of the Communist Party of China, said recently that the increased defense spending will be used to comprehensively strengthen military training and preparations, accelerate the construction of modern logistics, implement “major projects of national defense technology and weaponry”, and accelerate the “transformation of technology into combat effectiveness.”

When Tan Kefei talked about training and preparing for war, who was he referring to? Let’s listen to the analysis of military commentator Zhou Ziding.

Military commentator Zhou Ziding: “The CCP is especiallyXi JinpingAfter coming to power, it is to vigorously develop armaments. In a speech last year, Xi Jinping mentioned that by 2027, the CCP’s army, that is, the People’s Liberation Army, will be ready to attack Taiwan. “

“We can see that in the past 10 years, the development direction of the CCP is preparing for a war across the Taiwan Strait. We don’t care whether it will fight or not, because whether to fight a war or not is one thing, whether it is ready for a war It is another matter. It can be seen that Xi Jinping wants to say that I have this card in my hand and I am ready for this. When I politically decide to fight Taiwan, my army can do it. It is good to prepare for Taiwan.

In fact, the CCP used to include 1996 when we knew about the Taiwan Strait crisis. At that time, the CCP was completely incapable of attacking Taiwan.

The CCP knew about the Gulf War in 1991. The United States swept through Iraq in a short period of time, which shocked the entire CCP army. Therefore, in 1992, the CCP changed its strategy at that time, that is to say, the direction of the entire army was changed from active defense, which was called active defense before 1992, to fighting a high-quality regional war after 1992.

The so-called regional war may refer to the Vietnam War, or other wars, but this direction is not obvious. Because we know that in the 1990s, the CCP has been fighting Laoshan rounds in Vietnam, and it has been fighting in the 1980s. In the more than ten years since Xi Jinping came to power, the CCP’s intentions towards Taiwan have become more and more obvious. Therefore, from the perspective of the growth rate of GDP, I am not actually surprised. It actually reflects the current policy of the CCP, which is to continuously strengthen its own military force and armaments, and make preparations for the possible future so-called military reunification of Taiwan. The so-called preparation. “

How does the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan comment on the increase of the CCP’s defense budget?

“Liberty Times” reported that Taiwan’s Defense Minister Qiu Guozheng emphasized in the Legislative Yuan on the 6th that the CCP’s military spending has increased every year. From the CCP’s report, the CCP will use force to attack Taiwan if necessary in the future.

Qiu Guozheng said that the CCP has been waiting for a reason to attack Taiwan. Including high-level visits to Taiwan from other countries, or whether the Taiwan National Army has frequent exchanges with the outside world. At present, the planes and ships sent by the CCP to harass Taiwan have crossed the center line of the Taiwan Strait.

However, the United States has repeatedly stated that if the Chinese Communist Party attacks Taiwan, the United States will protect Taiwan.

[Scholar on military gap between the CCP and the United States: Xi does not understand the world]

Beijing is seen as demonstrating its ambitions by growing its economic targets and defense budget.

RFA quoted “Cross” as saying that with the holding of the National People’s Congress, Xi Jinping will win an unprecedented third term, thereby consolidating his power for the next five years. But in the face of the United States, which dissuaded the CCP from attacking Taiwan by force, Beijing announced another substantial increase in military spending.

On March 6, Tan Kefei, spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense of the Communist Party of China, introduced to the media the arrangement of this year’s defense budget. , are relatively low.

Why does Tan Kefei compare with the United States?

Military commentator Zhou Ziding: “In fact, the CCP has always wanted to weaken the so-called reputation of itself in Taiwan, or its image of attacking others by force, because the CCP has always promoted itself as a peace-loving country through so-called external propaganda. The country, the so-called United States is the country that provokes the war, so it wants to play down the impact of the increase in military spending, this is the CCP’s consistent diplomatic attitude.”

RFI quoted Le Figaro as saying that the CCP’s increase in defense budget is intended to strengthen its military capabilities, hoping that its troops will “strengthen” their training and be “ready for battle.”

But compared with the military power of the United States, the newspaper pointed out that the CCP only has 3 aircraft carriers, although in terms of the number of ships owned by the CCP, it is considered to have the largest navy in the world, ahead of the United States. But the CCP’s fleet mainly relies on smaller ships, which are far behind the strength of the United States.

The United States currently has 11 aircraft carriers. However, the U.S. Department of Defense pointed out in its 2021 annual report that the CCP is rapidly expanding its nuclear forces. By 2027, the CCP may have 700 deliverable nuclear warheads, and it will reach 1,000 in three years.

However, the U.S. political news website reported that according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, even if China’s nuclear expansion accelerates, it still lags behind the United States, which has 5,550 nuclear warheads. China currently has about 350 nuclear warheads, the group said.

Therefore, the outside world believes that if the CCP competes with the United States, at least the gap in military power will be very large.

According to a report by the Central News Agency, a well-known Chinese scholar of international relations revealed to the French newspaper Le Monde that the CCP will not go to war with the United States because the CCP’s leadership, that is, the richest people in the country, spend their money, including mistresses, in Some of the family members in the family are resettled in the United States, so they will never have the courage to give up these benefits.

The scholar, who asked not to be named, said that Xi Jinping thinks he knows everything, but he does not understand the world. Since he took power, he has successfully clashed with all Western countries, and most of Asia, so a military invasion of Taiwan by the CCP is unlikely.

Because, regardless of Taiwan’s status, part of the Taiwan Strait belongs to international waters. China’s naval aggression will block the passage of ships from Japan and South Korea, and even countries in the Middle East. In addition, the United States has bases in South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. When the CCP attacks Taiwan, the United States has a way to quickly intervene.

[BeforethetwosessionsXiJinpingacceleratedtwoactionstoprepareforTaiwan?】

Before the two sessions of the CCP, Xi Jinping was accelerating two major moves. The analysis pointed out that the CCP is preparing to attack Taiwan.

A few days ago, important provinces and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Wuhan, and Sichuan, and even remote counties and townships, have set up national defense mobilization offices and held high-profile unveiling ceremonies.

On January 31, the CCP’s “Liberation Army Daily” published an article by Chen Lixin, director of the CCP’s Shanghai Garrison Mobilization Bureau, saying that national defense mobilization “always survives and prepares for war” and must focus on “war”. The form of war determines national defense mobilization. form, there is an urgent need to build the so-called “war-type national defense mobilization”.

The article also stated that it is necessary to uphold the CCP’s “overall leadership over national defense mobilization.”

Zhou Ziding believes that Xi Jinping is preparing for the attack on Taiwan.

Military commentator Zhou Ziding: “The following is to say that he will mobilize or prepare in this regard from the military, economic, and political aspects. I personally think that these are all political or legal mobilization or preparations for the fight against Taiwan. .

Especially in the past 10 years, we have seen this sign and signal become more and more obvious, including the fact that the CCP’s mainland China has a large number of ro-ro fleets. These fleets have actually conducted a large number of exercises in the past one or two years. middle. Because we know that to fight Taiwan, you have to cross the strait, which requires a large number of transportation teams, and the CCP’s amphibious fleet has insufficient carrying capacity. In any large-scale amphibious operation in the world, it must rely on a large number of civilian fleets. The Dunkirk evacuation, the Normandy landing and the Incheon landing all revealed such a problem. So in all respects, the CCP, like the ro-ro ship, is completely a ship for the people’s livelihood. It uses the ships of the people’s livelihood to participate in military exercises, including the two laws on the so-called mobilization that are being done this year. I personally think that these are all One signal is that the CCP is actively preparing to attack Taiwan. “

At the same time, the CCP also announced that in times of war, the military can adjust and apply the specific provisions of the “Criminal Procedure Law of the People’s Republic of China” on jurisdiction, defense and agency, compulsory measures, case filing, investigation, prosecution, trial, and execution. , and will be implemented from February 25.

The specific implementation procedures of this regulation are stipulated by the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China.

Current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan said that the CCP’s action sent an important signal.

Current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan: “That is to say, the CCP’s army can implement the provisions of the “Criminal Procedure Law” in this special period of wartime, from the jurisdiction of the case to the arrest, filing, and then to the execution of the trial. All these powers and all these procedures of a dragon can be grasped in one step. In one step, it can go through all the procedures by itself.”

Current affairs commentator Zhou Xiaohui published an article in saying that the top leaders of the CCP cannot rule out that during the war, the army “defected, hid, and surrendered to the enemy”. After all, the phenomenon of military noise and disloyalty has not been eliminated since the 20th CPC National Congress. . Therefore, in order to ensure the prevention of the so-called “betrayal” of military personnel during wartime, leak the CCP’s confidential military information; and prepare in advance for the disposal of captured personnel during the war.

Tang Jingyuan thought that this was an extremely terrifying thing. For example, he said that once the CCP declares that it has entered a state of war, anyone who expresses different opinions on the Internet or in society is likely to be taken away by the soldiers directly. Because all legal procedures are decided by the Military Commission.

“That is to say, the checks and balances of the powers of the public security, the procuratorate, the law, the three courts, the normal legal procedures, etc., can actually stand aside. A few soldiers can find a room and sit there for two hours to decide a person’s life and death, and execute it immediately. That’s all. mean.”

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Tang Jingyuan said: “In the future, when China will enter the state of wartime military control, when the army will take over the entire judicial power, it will basically be decided by Xi Jinping.”

However, Zhou Ziding believes that the CCP will face many difficulties in invading Taiwan.

“However, it is very difficult to fight Taiwan. Because unlike Ukraine, Ukraine borders Russia and has a territory of thousands of kilometers. But Taiwan is separated by the Taiwan Strait, which is not narrow. And there is also the possible intervention of the United States and Japan, so it is very challenging for the CCP. But in any case, the signs we are seeing now are that Xi Jinping is determined to go his own way, that is, he wants to make the military ready for this, but in the end If you don’t fight, I think it’s hard to say what the fight will be like in the end.”

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