Research: It has become a consensus that China’s real estate has entered an era of negative growth

[February 10, 2023](Comprehensive report by Epoch Times special reporter Li Siqi) Although the Central Bank of China and relevant departments continued to introduce policies to stimulate the property market in January, sales remained sluggish.Top 100 real estate companiesSales fell by more than 30% year-on-year.Kerui, a Chinese private real estate research institution, believes that “the current industry is going down and is really ushering inNegative growthThe times have become a consensus.”

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In order to stimulate the sluggish real estate market, the Central Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and local provinces and cities continued to introduce relevant policies in January in order to expect sales to pick up. For example, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on January 5 stating that they decided to establish the first set of dynamic adjustment mechanism for housing loan interest rate policies;

butChina’s real estateThe expected “good start” did not appear in the market. According to the statistical results of China Index Research Institute (China Index Research Institute), JanuaryTop 100 real estate companiesThe total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 302.54 billion yuan (about 45.5 billion US dollars), down 35.2% year-on-year. The so-called equity sales refer to the basis of the company’s equity ratio, that is, if a real estate project is a cooperation between multiple real estate companies, then the project performance will be included in the corresponding real estate company according to the equity ratio. Equity sales can better reflect the actual situation of real estate companies.

In addition, the China Index Research Institute believes that the “pace of land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies has slowed down significantly.” The land acquisition amount in January was 59.1 billion yuan (about 8.9 billion US dollars), a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%.

The Crane Research Center under E-House Group announced on February 2 the trading sales of real estate companies in January.”January 2023″ by the Crane Research CenterChina’s real estateThe “Top 100 Enterprise Sales” report (hereinafter referred to as the report) shows that the top 100 real estate companies only realized a sales transaction amount of 354.29 billion yuan (about 53 billion U.S. dollars) in January. . Operating sales refer to the basis of enterprise operating. If a real estate project is cooperated by multiple real estate enterprises, the performance of this project will only be included in the operating enterprise. Manipulation refers to the specific responsibility for the development and construction of the project.

The report predicts that the supply, demand and transactions of China’s real estate will not show obvious signs of warming in the short term, and the overall sales will remain low.The report concluded: “On the whole, after five years of high sales, the national commercial housing sales will be lowered and bottomed out in 2022. The area of ​​new housing starts, real estate development investment, and corporate investment enthusiasm have also fallen to the bottom. The current industry is down. and really ushered inNegative growthThe era has become a consensus, and the optimistic expectation of the industry scale in 2023 is to stop falling. “

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The overall downturn of China’s real estate industry is also reflected in the sharp drop in the sales thresholds of TOP30 and TOP50 real estate companies, with year-on-year declines as high as 52.2% and 45.1% respectively.

The report also mentioned that Chinese real estate companies will have a large-scale debt repayment wave in the first three quarters of 2023, and more than seven of them will become debts of private real estate companies. Since 2021, since the amount of bonds issued by Chinese real estate companies has exceeded the maturity amount for a long time, the debt burden of real estate companies has become heavier and heavier, and debt repayment is under pressure.

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The report believes that improving the sales side is the core of improving the operation of real estate companies, but the overall market demand and purchasing power are still weak. Weak commodity housing sales are also reflected in the latest personal housing loan data released by the Communist Party of China.

The Central Bank of the Communist Party of China released the “Statistical Report on Loan Investment of Financial Institutions in the Fourth Quarter of 2022” on February 3, stating that by the end of 2022, the balance of personal housing loans in China will increase by only 1.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate is 10 percentage points lower than that at the end of 2021.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, published an article titled “Promoting consumption is easier said than done” in the column of “Sina Opinion Leaders” on February 6, saying, “Since last year, China’s real estate market has opened a possible long-term up to ten yearsdown cycle. “

Regarding the sharp increase in household savings in 2022, Li Xunlei said that the increased savings are “almost impossible to convert” into consumption, including the purchase of real estate. He explained that because this part of savings is an investment fund for residents to use for future protection, part of it is the funds to reduce expenditures on house purchases, and is not used for consumption; and most of the excess savings are investment funds for high-income groups, The main body of consumption is often low- and middle-income groups.

Editor in charge: Lian Shuhua