How do the real estate industry and banks see the trend of the US housing market this year?

[January 07, 2023](Reported by Epoch Times reporter Marshawn Los Angeles) 2023Price trendhow? Many people are confused, many people are at a loss, and many people are waiting to make the final decision. Experts and scholars in the real estate industry are also discussing and have different opinions. But in general, most people think that house prices will drop. Most companies believe that the decline range is within 10%, and a few companies believe that house prices will fall sharply, but this will not happen within a year, but a continuous price reduction process for many years.

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A recent Fortune magazine article profiles 27 of America’s leading real estate research firms orlending institution, Views on the direction of the US housing market in 2023. 23 of them believe that real estate prices will fall this year, but 4 real estate companies or real estate brokerage agencies: Reator.com, Home.LLC, Corelogic and the National Association of Realtors NAR believe that house prices will rise, with an increase range of 0.6% to 5.4%.

Among the research institutions that believe that housing prices will fall, 6 companies believe that the decline will be between 0.2% and 5%, including Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, MBA Mortgage Bankers Association, Zillow and Redfin, and Amherst Real Estate Investment company (Amherst). Among them, MBA believes that it will drop by 0.6% in 2023 and another 1.2% in 2024; Fannie Mae believes that there will be a small decline for two consecutive years, that is, a 1.5% drop in 2023 and another 1.4% drop in 2024; The real estate investment company believes that the 5% decline will be spread over a period of 3 years (09/2022-09/2025).

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There are 9 companies that believe that the decline is between 5% and 10%, including: Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, ING (Ing), Keller Williams International Real Estate (Keller Williams Realty Inc.), TD Bank ( TD Bank), Morgan Stanley and Moody’s Analytics, among others. Among them, ING also believes that housing prices may also drop to 20%.

The institutions that believe that the decline is more than 10% include: Zelman Associates (Zelman Associates), housing market research company Zoned Home, AEI Investment Company, CoStar Real Estate Research Company, KPMG accounting firm and other 8 companies. However, the time span of their predictions is often calculated from the peak of housing prices in 2022 until the next few years. During this period, the housing market in some areas has fallen sharply, absorbing the decline space that these institutions said.

Among them, KPMG’s view is more pessimistic. KPMG uses the “Case-Shiller House Price Index” to measure U.S. house prices, and believes that between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023, it will fall by 20%. KPMG believes that the soaring housing prices after the epidemic are due to the migration trend of working from home-high-paying workers move to second-tier markets in search of more living space, resulting in rising housing prices. Now, once the price falls, there will be a continuous momentum, and people have a psychology of buying up and not buying down. KPMG’s chief economist told Fortune.com: “No one wants to catch a falling knife.”

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In addition, some companies have a prerequisite for predicting the decline of housing prices: the emergence of economic depression. For example, Moody’s analysis believes that if there is an economic depression, housing prices may decline by 15% to 20%. Morgan Stanley also believes that if the economy enters a deep recession,U.S. house pricesThere may be a 20% plunge from top to bottom; the bank believes that house prices will drop by 8% in 2023; its researchers believe that limited supply will help house prices rise, although it is impossible to make house prices rise, but it can prevent house prices from sharply rising fall.

Yieldstreet, a digital investment platform invested by Soros, believes that by the third quarter of 2023,U.S. house pricesIt will be 20% lower than the peak in 2022.But it doesn’t refer to American-ownedreal estate market, but those real estate markets that have a lot of housing inventory and a lot of new homes, such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas and Boise. ◇

Editor in charge: Fang Ping