[September 6, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Wang Xiang compiled and reported) The Wall Street Journal recently reported that some economists currently expectChina’s economycan’t scaleovertake the US.
The reason is that this yearChina’s economyThe outlook has dimmed, with Beijing-led policies crippling economic growth, including a COVID-19 zero policy and reining in property speculation. Economists have already cut their growth forecasts for China in 2022, and their longer-term outlook has worsened, as unfavorable demographics and high debt levels are likely to weigh on any rebound.
Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury secretary and now a Harvard professor, said China’s aging population and Beijing’s growing propensity to intervene in corporate affairs have led him to sharply lower his expectations for China’s economic growth.
He said predictions of China’s rise had similarities to earlier predictions that Japan or Russia would overtake the United States, which he said looked absurd today.
“I think there’s a real possibility that something similar will happen in the future as far as China is concerned … if China’s growth slows down significantly, it will affect China’s influence,” Summers said.
Other researchers debate the significance of the GDP rankings and question whether it would make a big difference if China did overtake the US.
Size alone does not reflect the quality of growth, said Leland Miller, chief executive of research firm China Beige Book. Living standards in the U.S. are five times higher than in China, measured by per capita gross domestic product, and the gap is unlikely to close anytime soon.
In addition, the depth and openness of the U.S. economy means that the U.S. will continue to have enormous influence and the U.S. dollar will remain the global reserve currency for years to come.
Still, the ranking change would be a propaganda victory for the Chinese government, as it seeks to show the world and its own people that China’s state-led model is superior to Western liberal democracies and that the United States is in political and economic decline.
Some economists worry that a simple comparison of the size of the Chinese and American economies could lead to a runaway nationalist sentiment in China.
Capital Economics, a British research firm, said in a report early last year that they expect China’s economy to expand to about 87 percent of the U.S. economy in 2030, before falling back to 81 percent in 2050. It pointed to factors such as China’s shrinking labor force and sluggish productivity growth.
“Many have long overestimated the capabilities of China’s (CCP) leadership and are alarmed by the missteps of the COVID-19 response and the real estate industry,” its chief Asia economist Mark Williams wrote in an email. . “The vulnerabilities exposed by these crises have been around for a long time and are growing.”
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#