[The Epoch Times, August 2, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Cheng Jing reported) Speaker of the U.S. House of RepresentativesPelosiIt is rare for a trip to Asia to “take a long detour and travel from south to north”. Analysts believe that the US aircraft carrier “Reagan” rushed to the Taiwan Strait to open up a “safe channel” for Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, while the United States, China and Taiwan recently gathered in the Indo-Pacific region for military exercises. But the possibility of the CCP bluffing is high.
Analysis of 3 more military exercises announced by the CCP: bluff
Today (August 1), the official WeChat account of the Eastern Theater Command of the Communist Party of China posted, “Stand by and fight. Bury all the enemies who invade and advance toward the consecutive victories.”
This morning, the Qinglan Maritime Safety Administration, located in Wenchang City, Hainan Island, issued a navigation warning, stating that from 0:00 on August 2 to 24:00 on August 6, military training will be conducted in some waters of the South China Sea, and sailing is prohibited.
On the same day, the Liaoning Maritime Safety Administration and the Dalian Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning. From 14:00 on August 1 to 24:00 on August 4, live ammunition will be fired in some waters in the northern part of the Bohai Sea. No entry.
The Guangdong Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning. From 2:00 on August 2 to 17:00 on the 3rd, shooting training was conducted in the western waters of the Leizhou Peninsula in the South China Sea, and ships were prohibited from entering.
On July 29, the Fujian Maritime Safety Administration’s WeChat public account announced that live ammunition was carried out in the waters off Pingtan Island, Fujian, which is the closest point to Taiwan, from 8:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. on July 30.
Previously, according to Hong Kong media statistics, from July 29 to August 3, the CCP military conducted at least five military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea.
Current affairs commentator Guo Chonglun said in an interview with Radio Free Asia that the military exercise announced by the CCP’s military may be in the context of the CCP’s “August 1st Army Day”, and it also seems to be aimed atPelosiThe temporary military exercise with news of the visit to Taiwan is a “bluff” to express dissatisfaction.
However, Guo Chonglun believes that the CCP’s military exercises will avoid the time when Pelosi arrives in Taiwan. “The military exercises will be separated in time and place to avoid misfires,” he said.
Taiwan military expert Chen Guoming also believes that “they must also do some actions to explain to the people at home, saying big internal propaganda, big external propaganda… In any case, the Chinese (CCP) military must do this, otherwise the commander of the Eastern Theater Command will not have to mess with him. Well, he has to say something.”
U.S. leads three military exercises, USS Ronald Reagan escorts Pelosi
At the same time, the United States is leading large-scale military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region. Yonhap News Agency reported yesterday (July 31) that the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada conducted a joint military exercise “Pacific Dragon” targeting North Korea’s ballistic missile detection and tracking in the waters off Hawaii, the United States, from August 1 to 14. (Pacific Dragon).
In addition, Deutsche Welle reported that at least 4,000 Indonesian and American soldiers began a two-week joint military exercise starting Monday (August 1). Troops from Australia, Singapore and Japan, which is participating for the first time in the annual exercise dubbed “Super Garuda Shield”, said it “supports a free and open” Asia-Pacific region.
The “Rim of the Pacific” military exercise (RIMPAC 2022) from June 29 to August 4 was attended by 26 countries.
Regarding the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, US officials previously told CNN that the US military may use fighter jets, warships and reconnaissance equipment.
Japan’s “Ryukyu Shimbun” reported on Saturday (July 30) that there are 9 KC-135 aerial tankers attached to the US domestic air force base, 2 carrier-based C-2 Greyhound transport aircraft, and 1 “Tripoli”. The amphibious assault ship carrier-based helicopter MH-60 landed at the Kadena Air Force Base in Japan one after another, and it was concluded that it may be related to Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan.
The CCP think tank “South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness” announced on Weibo today that the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group has entered the nearby waters east of the Bashi Strait.
Su Ziyun, director of the Taiwan Institute for National Defense Security, told Free Asia that the best way for Pelosi to travel from the U.S. to Japan and South Korea in Asia is to take the shortest route to Alaska, but Pelosi chose to go as far as San Francisco, Hawaii and 10,000 across the Pacific Ocean. Two thousand kilometers, should be considered safety.
He analyzed the preventive deployment of the United States and said: “From Malaysia to the north, the USS Ronald Reagan is the main force on the way. Of course, the fighter jets taking off from Okinawa can also support some of the south, which is equivalent to opening up a safe air corridor.”
Expert: Both the US and Taiwan are low-key
The Taiwan National Army has no comment on Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense Air Force spokesman Lieutenant General Chen Guohua replied to Radio Free Asia that there was no news or plan on whether Pelosi would visit Taiwan. In addition, the military exercises of the Chinese military are under control.
Taiwan is also conducting a series of training exercises recently. The Taiwan National Army Hanguang No. 38 live and some live ammunition exercises have ended on July 29, and a series of training will be scheduled after that, including “heavy artillery firing”, “airspace exercise” and “loyalty exercise” in the fourth combat zone , “Zhenjiang Exercise”, the third season of artillery shooting training and “Joint Courage Exercise”, which lasted until the end of August.
Su Ziyun said that from keeping a low profile in the United States and Taiwan to Pelosi’s choice of flight path, it can be regarded as diplomatic art and science, and it also proves that the probability of visiting Taiwan is high.
Su Ziyun also said that the Chinese military is currently sending two warships to follow the USS Ronald Reagan, keeping about 15 nautical miles, and acting in moderation. There are various signs that Pelosi will come to Taiwan, Taiwan is low-key, the United States is low-key, and the CCP also controls the operation , no upgrade.
Responsible editor: Li Qiong#