[The Epoch Times, June 8, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Yi Ru and Fang Xiao interviewed and reported) The housing purchase policies in many places in the mainland continued to be loosened. Many cities such as Shangqiu in Henan Province, Tangshan in Hebei Province, Qinhuangdao, and Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province introduced new policies to stimulate . Despite the intensive release of favorable policies for the property market in various places, the effect has not been shown. Experts analyze the root causes of the downturn in the mainland property market.
How many more places to untie the property market
On June 7, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Shangqiu City, Henan Province issued a new policy to stabilize the property market. Shangqiu City will increase the provident fund loan amount. If one applicant meets the housing provident fund loan conditions, the maximum loan amount will be adjusted from 400,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan; if both spouses meet the housing provident fund loan conditions, the maximum loan amount will be adjusted from 600,000 yuan to 700,000 yuan. million. It also provides housing subsidy for talents, 50,000 yuan for doctoral students, 30,000 yuan for master’s students, and 20,000 yuan for undergraduate graduates.
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In addition, for households without housing loans to purchase ordinary housing, the minimum down payment ratio of the loan is 20%. For the newly issued commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing, the lower limit of the interest rate shall be the requirement that the market quoted interest rate of the loan of the corresponding term minus 20 basis points. In addition, a one-time subsidy of 10,000 yuan will be given to individuals who purchase ordinary commercial housing for the first time.
On June 6, Tangshan and Qinhuangdao in Hebei Province, Xuzhou City in Jiangsu Province, and Suining City in Sichuan Province all relaxed their housing provident fund loan policies.
Among them, in addition to reducing the down payment ratio of provident fund loans and increasing the maximum loan amount, Tangshan also reduced the minimum down payment ratio for a second home to 20%, and increased the maximum loan amount for families with multiple children; Qinhuangdao also purchased the full amount. Families with new houses propose that parents of both parties can withdraw provident funds to support their children in purchasing houses.
In terms of loans, it is proposed that the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans should be reduced, and the minimum down payment ratio for housing provident fund loans should be adjusted from not less than 30% to not less than 20% for employees who pay for their first and second self-occupied housing.
This policy adjustment will be implemented from June 15, 2022.
On June 6, the Qinhuangdao Housing Provident Fund Management Center released the detailed rules for the implementation of the new policy. Among them, it is proposed to increase the maximum loan amount, adjust the upper limit of the loan amount for single-payment employees from 400,000 yuan to 600,000 yuan, and adjust the upper limit of the family loan limit for double-payment employees from 600,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan. (It can be adjusted according to the actual situation)
At the same time, the down payment ratio of the second loan is reduced, and the depositors who have paid off the first personal housing provident fund loan and reapply for the housing provident fund loan to purchase self-occupied housing shall adjust the minimum down payment ratio from not less than 60% to not less than 60%. 30%.
On June 6, the Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province issued the “Notice on Implementing the Phased Policy of Housing Provident Fund”. Among them, it is proposed to adjust the down payment ratio of the first housing provident fund loan. For those who use housing provident fund loans for the first time, the down payment ratio for new commercial housing is adjusted from 30% to 20%, and the down payment ratio for second-hand housing is adjusted from 40% to 30%. This policy will be implemented from the date of promulgation and will be implemented on a trial basis for one year.
At the same time, the business of withdrawing housing provident fund monthly to repay commercial banks’ personal housing loans was launched. Employees who have never used housing provident fund loans are allowed to withdraw housing provident funds monthly to repay commercial bank personal housing loans. At the same time, the business of transferring part of the balance of personal housing loans from commercial banks to housing provident fund loans will be suspended. This policy will be implemented from August 1, 2022.
On June 6, the Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Suining City, Sichuan Province issued the “Notice on Appropriate Adjustment of Housing Provident Fund Loan Policies”, which proposed that the down payment ratio of provident fund loans for second homes in Suining was reduced to 30%.
In addition, the depositor’s family in line with Suining’s housing provident fund loan policy to purchase a second ordinary self-occupied housing in the district of Suining, the down payment ratio is reduced from 40% to 30%.
Professional Analysisreal estateThe root cause of the downturn
Since the beginning of this year, major measures have been taken to save the mainland property market. The main measures include reducing the down payment ratio for the first home, loosening restrictions on purchases, loans, and sales, relaxing the threshold for provident fund loans, increasing the maximum amount of provident fund loans, issuing housing subsidies, and reducing mortgage interest rates, etc. The cities that have been rescued by the property market have gradually spread from third- and fourth-tier cities to strong second-tier and new first-tier cities.
However, institutional data shows that in the first five months of this year, the top 100 mainland real estate companies achieved a cumulative sales volume of 2.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.3%, and a decrease of more than 20% compared with the same period in 2020; 3, compared to 15 last year.
The sales of some real estate companies fell sharply. KWG Group announced on the evening of June 6 that in May 2022, the pre-sales of the group and its joint ventures and associated companies were 4.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63.5%. The pre-sold GFA of the Group and its joint ventures and associates was approximately 198,000 square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 68.9%.
Zheng Yi, a former mainland investment banker, told the Epoch Times reporter that the released real estate sales data mainly show that,real estateThe effect of the industry as the backbone of the mainland’s economic development has passed. A series of policies to curb housing prices that have been introduced before are already in play. This wave of policies was too forceful, which directly led to the collapse of the real estate industry, and this collapse is irreversible in the short term.
As for the main reasons for the decline in real estate sales, Zheng Yi believes that there are several points.
The first point is that the three red lines of the CCP have directly led to the explosion of a large number of housing companies, causing the whole society to worry about the credit of housing companies. At the beginning, home buyers took a wait-and-see attitude, which was mainly because the capital chain of real estate enterprises broke, resulting in the lack of credit of the real estate enterprises themselves, and the society began to pay attention to the credit of real estate enterprises. This series of defaults has caused home buyers to wait and see and no longer dare to invest.
The second point is the rise in unemployment and the emergence of stagflation caused by the lack of motivation in its internal circulation due to the impact of the epidemic and the decoupling of China from the international community. The phenomenon of stagflation is caused by inflation on the one hand and deflation on the other, which makes ordinary people have to lower their living standards and consumption levels. In order to maintain basic food and clothing, the people’s desire to invest has declined, which is one reason.
The third reason is that the previous real estate bubble overdrafted the people’s credit ability, which means that it is difficult for individuals to continue to increase the leverage ratio, and it has basically been added to the end. Because almost every civil society and every family is borrowing money to live. Now let him buy a house and give him a loan. His personal credit report can’t bear the loan amount, so he has no additional funds to speculate on the house, so the sales of houses must also be declining.
Zheng Yi believes that the most important reason is unemployment. The people’s food and clothing are the first, and the investment is the second. With no cash flow, he not only dared not take out loans, but also experienced large-scale supply cuts and foreclosures. “Now that people’s jobs are unstable, they will cut off their supply and abandon their houses. The court has started auctions, and a large number of second-hand houses have flooded into the market. On the supply side, a large number of second-hand houses are oversupplied, and housing prices will naturally drop. The most important thing is that the confidence of the common people in this real estate has completely disappeared, and the common people in China have always been buying up and not buying down.
Zheng Yi said that the core problem is employment – solving the source of income for the leeks is the key to solving the current real estate downturn. If China’s real estate industry collapses,China’s economyIt’s over, so the fundamental solution to the real estate problem is to solve the overall economic problem.
Song Weijun of the Tianjun Institute of Political Science and Economics said that debt has caused the capital chain of Chinese real estate developers to tighten. In addition, banks have tightened credit policies for housing companies before, so housing companies are not very motivated to acquire land. At the same time, the economic downturn is obvious to all. Sales also didn’t go well.
Song Weijun said that although various localities are introducing policies to stimulate the property market, there is a certain lag, and there may be a certain recovery during the gold, nine silver and tenth period in the third quarter, but such strict epidemic prevention policies have also hindered the economic recovery. And the tension in the industrial chain has not eased, and the income of employees will also decline, and home buyers with rigid needs are also in a wait-and-see state.
Lu Media: The policy to save the property market has not been effective
In early March, Zhengzhou, Henan first implemented the property market deregulation policy, and then second-tier cities followed suit. In April alone, 66 cities introduced property market deregulation policies, more than the sum of the policies in the first quarter.
According to incomplete statistics, from April 1 to May 24, a total of 22 second-tier cities across the country relaxed property market regulation 46 times, including Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Chengdu, etc.
According to statistics from Crane Real Estate Research, as of May 24, the number of cities that have relaxed property market regulation policies has increased to 134, and the frequency of policy regulation has reached 223.
Tencent News’ WeChat “Prism”, which focuses on in-depth coverage of pan-finance and finance, reported on June 1 that the landing effect of this round of rescue operations in the mainland has not shown significant improvement so far.
Responsible editor: Li Muen#