[The Epoch Times, April 16, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Winnie interviewed and reported) As of April 15, Shanghai, the largest city in China with a population of 26 million, has been completely closed for half a month, among which Pudong District The city has been closed for nearly 3 weeks, and parts of Minhang have also been closed for nearly 40 days.
![[Finance and Business World]The real leader may not be Li Keqiang](https://i0.wp.com/news.belivian.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/id13753616-aaf0e81788827d6fb6f04d3e331dcd3e-700x359.jpg?resize=120%2C86&ssl=1)
Shanghai is not only China’s economic and financial center, but also an international aviation, shipping and logistics center.Shanghai PortIt is the world’s largest container port, and last year it took on 20% of China’s foreign trade throughput.Given that Shanghai isGlobal Supply ChainThe industry believes that the long-term closure of Shanghai will seriously affect the global supply chain.
Trucker restrictions intensify at portscongestion
In June last year, Shenzhen Yantian Port was blocked for nearly a month due to the epidemic, resulting in a backlog of tens of thousands of shipping containers. Many ships had to wait outside the port for several weeks, which was severely impacted.Global Supply Chain.
This year, Chinese authorities have tried to soften the impact of the coronavirus restrictions by keeping ports and airports open and encouraging “closed-loop” production.But according to a report by Chinese portal Sohu on April 1, althoughShanghai PortIt remains open, but transportation to and from the airport and container terminal is severely restricted as roads, bridges and tunnels between Pudong and Puxi are blocked.
The report quoted relevant data as saying that since the beginning of March, Shanghai Port has appearedcongestionAs of April 1, the number of ships waiting for loading and unloading in Shanghai Port increased by nearly five times, and the affected container capacity exceeded 14%. The report predicts that with the large-scale nucleic acid screening in Shanghai, the congestion of Shanghai Port will further intensify.
According to freight data from foreign media, as of April 11, 222 bulk carriers were waiting overseas in Shanghai, an increase of 15% from a month ago.
The number of container ships waiting at the port of Shanghai and nearby Ningbo Zhoushan has more than doubled since the beginning of April, and almost tripled from a year ago, according to Refinitiv data.
Truck transportation is an important part of China’s supply chain, and China’s road transportation accounts for more than 70% of the freight volume. However, due to the strict closure and testing measures implemented by the Chinese government at all levels during the epidemic, the movement of truck drivers has been restricted, making it difficult for many companies to transfer raw materials and finished products between ports and factories.
In the case of tense port operations due to poor land transportation, many shipping companies were forced to make business changes. Some voyages of Maersk, ONE, and ZIM canceled calling at Shanghai Port, and adopted “land-to-water” or railway intermodal transportation. Serve.
In addition, due to problems such as low truck transportation efficiency and difficulty in entering the port, some yards of Shanghai Port are under pressure, and shipping companies such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM, ONE and other shipping companies are in danger Products and reefers were forced to be transferred to other ports for unloading.
Shanghai closed cityExacerbating pressure on global supply chains
Chinese manufacturing accounts for about one-third of global manufacturing. More than 15% of U.S. imports come from China, more than 20% of Japan’s total imports come directly or indirectly from Chinese goods, 70% of active pharmaceutical ingredients in India, a major drug producer, come from China, while 24% of Vietnam’s total manufacturing value-added comes from Chinese parts.
According to a research report by BBVA, “If the Shanghai port stops functioning, considering its huge capacity, it will be difficult for other nearby ports to fill the gap, and the global supply chain will feel directly at that time.Shanghai closed citys pain. “
In an interview with The Epoch Times recently, Zhang Jinglun, a North American financial expert, said that Shanghai is an important port in the Yangtze River Delta, a global manufacturing base. The closure of Shanghai will inevitably disrupt local production and logistics, and many freight shipments will be delayed, thereby aggravating the global supply chain.inflationpressure, especially in the US.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on April 12 showed that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose to 8.5% in March from 7.9% in February, a 40-year high. U.S. prices have been rising,inflationThe rate has been above 6% for six consecutive months, well above the Fed’s average target of 2%.
Besides Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu are also major manufacturing hubs in the Yangtze River Delta region, accounting for about one-third of China’s total exports. The Finance Committee of the Taiwan Legislative Yuan confirmed on April 11 that 161 Taiwanese companies in Shanghai and Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province, an important town for Taiwanese businessmen, announced the suspension of work.
According to a survey of 167 U.S. companies by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, as of April 1, due to the outbreak in Shanghai, more than half of the local U.S. multinational companies lowered their annual revenue forecasts, and more than 80% of the manufacturers reported lack of employees and inability to obtain raw material supplies. As a result, production slowed down or declined, and another 77% of companies expressed dissatisfaction with the length of the quarantine period.
A spokesman for the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) said that China is the source of many trade routes in the world, and any disruption to China’s routes will have a global impact; however, supply chain disruptions will have a lagging effect, and it is expected that the impact of China’s closure will be in Continue to ferment in the coming weeks and months.
Michael Wax, CEO and co-founder of digital freight forwarder Forto, said the surge in infections in China, and the resulting congestion at ports, would have a domino effect on global supply chains, anticipating the shockwaves. It will be transmitted to the European market after 6 weeks.
Global Shippers Forum director James Hookham (James Hookham) told the British “Express.co.uk” (Express.co.uk) that China’s closure of cities has led to large-scale cancellations of shipping, but Chinese cities such as Shanghai are lifted. After that, there could be a surge in shipping that could overwhelm international ports.
Doug Barry, a spokesman for the US-China Business Council, said Christmas orders need to be filled by the summer, and port blockages could cause costly delays and even a shortage of goods on holiday shelves at the end of the year.
Responsible editor: Lian Shuhua#
.
