[Epoch Times, May 9, 2022]Affected by the continued spread of the epidemic and the “closure of cities” in Shanghai and other places, the growth rate of mainland China’s dollar-denominated exports in April slowed to 3.9% year-on-year, the lowest level in nearly two years.
The General Administration of Customs of China announced on May 9 that in April this year, the total export value in U.S. dollars was 273.62 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, the lowest since June 2020; an increase of 14.7% year-on-year from March, a significant increase to soften. Imports turned flat in April from a year-on-year decline, above the -3 percent median forecast in a Reuters poll, and a 0.1 percent drop last month, the first negative reading in more than a year and a half. The trade surplus in April was $51.12 billion.
According to the Hong Kong Economic Times, Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist of Baoyin Capital Management, said:Exports in AprilThe sharp drop in growth rate is mainly affected by the closure and control of many cities such as Shanghai. Exports are expected to remain weak in May, as manufacturers are forced to reduce or even stop production due to supply chain disruptions. Import data is also a signal that many companies need to import parts or components, or are also affected, and the resumption of work and production is still slow.
Zhang Zhiwei also pointed out that another important issue is to pay close attention to the extent to which export orders will be transferred to emerging economies such as India and Vietnam.
Chang Ran, a senior researcher at the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, believes that some overseas economies are entering into monetary tightening, especially when the Fed raises interest rates relatively aggressively and simultaneously starts to shrink its balance sheet. In China, the epidemic broke out in many places, and the industrial chain and supply chain suffered great obstacles due to the epidemic. Southeast Asia has transitioned from the repair period to the production expansion period, forming a certain degree of substitution for China’s export supply.
Chang Ran predicts that foreign trade will continue to be under pressure in May, and the export pressure will be difficult to subside in the short term. The hidden outbreak of the epidemic and regional static management will restrict production and logistics transportation; closed-loop production after resumption of work will also increase epidemic prevention expenditures and labor costs, squeeze the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises, and reduce their willingness to accept orders and resume production.
Zhang Zhiwei believes that China is facing a “dilemma” between controlling the epidemic and not causing too much impact on the economy, and trade is very sensitive to “dynamic clearing”.
Responsible editor: Fang Ming#