[The Epoch Times, March 15, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Zhang Dongguang comprehensive report) On the eve of the Federal Reserve’s March 15-16 regular meeting to decide on interest rate policy, the US 10-year bond yield on Monday (14th) surged to 2.145 %, a new peak since July 2019, and the 30-year government bond yield also rose to 2.481%, which has become another issue for investors to worry about in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Nasdaq, which represents technology stocks, was affected on the same day. It fell 2.04%, falling below the Russian invasion on February 4UkraineThe low of the day, down nearly 20% so far in 2022, became theUS stocksThe worst part.
In contrast, the Dow closed 1.05 points higher on Monday, down 9.34% so far in 2022, and was last at 32,945, still above its Feb. 24 low. The S&P 500 fell 0.74% on the same day, also above its Feb. 24 low, but down 12.44% for 2022.
The pan-European 600 index rose 1.2% on Monday, and fell about 10.95% so far in 2022, which is between the S&P and the Dow. The index has risen by more than 5% in the past five trading days, reflecting that the talks between Russia and Ukraine are gradually emerging. Dawn of peace.
Russia’s recent onslaughtUkraineCities all over the country even bombarded the supply channel of Ukraine’s neighboring Poland, but military experts mostly believe that this is Putin’s eagerness to achieve a military victory during the talks in order to find himself a step down. International oil prices, which are closely related to geopolitics, have plummeted recently. The latest price of West Texas crude oil is around $102 per barrel, and Brent crude oil is about $106, far below the peaks of $130.5 and $139 in early March. Both oil prices are still up about 35%.
The easing of geopolitical conditions in Ukraine also caused the price of gold to show greater selling pressure. The latest quotation of gold futures in New York was US$1,956 per ounce, which was a sharp rebound from the peak of US$2,078 on March 8. Oil and gold have been revised sharply from their peaks recently, reflecting speculators’ belief that the Ukrainian war has a high probability of a diplomatic solution.
However,US stocksHowever, the recent trend has fallen in tandem with oil and gold, reflecting that investors are generally pessimistic about the overall financial environment. In February this year, US consumer prices rose by 7.9% year-on-year, challenging the peak in 40 years again. Given that the recent international oil price is still above 100 yuan, the temperature of inflation is difficult to drop, and the outlook of Wall Street investment banks on the stock market has turned pessimistic.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the Fed will raise interest rates by 1 yard (0.25%) in March, 5 yards in 2022, and the U.S. federal base rate will rise to 2.625% by the end of 2023.
In its latest report, Bank of America predicted that the probability of the S&P 500 falling into a bear market has been as high as 35%. The S&P 500 index was last quoted at 4,173 points, which has receded about 13.4% from its historical peak of 4,818 points in January. If the index falls to 3,854 points, it will fall into bear market territory, which has fallen 20% from its peak.
At the same time, the latest quotation of the Nasdaq Index is 12,581 points, which has dropped 22.3% from the historical peak of 16,212 points in November last year, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has also dropped by about 25% since its peak, both falling into bear market territory.
Benchmark tech stocks fell across the board on Monday, with Apple, Netflix and Amazon all down more than 2 percent, while Alphabet Inc and Tesla fell more than 3 percent.
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#