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[Epoch Times, February 18, 2022](Epoch Times reporter Zhang Dongguang comprehensive report) After the Russian media claimed that the Ukrainian government forces opened fire on the “pro-Russian zone in eastern Ukraine”, investors originally expected that the Ukraine crisis might be resolved through diplomatic channels. Failed again, Thursday (17th)US stocksThe three major indexes experienced huge selling pressure again. The Dow fell 622 points or 1.78%, the highest decline since November 30 last year, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, and the Nasdaq also fell 2.88%, hitting a record low on February 3. The highest drop since.
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U.S. President Biden said there were various signs that Russia was planning an invasion of Ukraine in the coming days, adding that Russia intended to launch a “false flag operation” as a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine. Biden’s accusations deepened investors’ fears of an imminent war on Thursday.
The technical aspect shows that the Dow has fallen below the low point on February 14, and it may test the low point on January 24 in the short term, and it will fall below the 200-day moving average again in the near future. The best situation is to build a bottom repeatedly. Although the Nasdaq has fallen below the 200-day moving average since January 18, lagging behind the Dow, it has not fallen below the low point on February 14, and the bottoming performance is relatively strong.
Although the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which represents the prosperity of technology stocks, fell 3.74% on Thursday, the decline was smaller than the 4.8% drop on Friday, and the latest quotation was higher than the previous low on February 14, reflecting that investors’ selling pressure on technology stocks has Convergence than the previous wave of killing.
Amid the ongoing crisis and conflict in Ukraine, previously surging international oil prices were hit by a possible Iran nuclear deal, falling to as low as $88.83 a barrel on Thursday, far below Monday’s seven-year peak of $95.82. It underscores that some speculators have taken advantage of the deepening crisis in Ukraine to take profits.
At the same time, gold has become the main safe-haven channel for investors.gold priceIt hit an 8-month high of $1,900 an ounce on Thursday. Gold prices have risen 3.9% this year, in sharp contrast to the Dow’s 5.58% drop, showing investors turning to gold for safety amid a geopolitical crisis.
However,gold priceThe natural enemy is the US interest rate policy and the trend of the US dollar. Since the Fed is expected to start raising interest rates in March, it may raise interest rates by at least 4 yards in 2022, and the psychological pressure of gold prices is not light. However, the technical aspect shows that if the price of gold breaks through the peak of $1,919 in June last year, there is a chance to challenge the peak of $1,962 at the beginning of last year, and even challenge the all-time high of $2,089.
The price of gold fell 3.73% last year, mainly due to the gold-absorbing effect of Bitcoin’s surge, and many funds traditionally invested in gold turned into Bitcoin speculation. Today, the latest price of bitcoin is about $40,600, down more than 40% from last year’s record high of $69,000. This year, bitcoin’s trend has followed the decline of US technology stocks, a drop of 12%. This year’s safe-haven funds are back in gold’s arms amid a weakening performance of Bitcoin.
In terms of the U.S. dollar index, despite the bullishness of the Fed’s potential tightening and the safe-haven demand from Ukraine’s geopolitical turmoil, the U.S. dollar index has been flat recently, closing at 95.77 points on Thursday, only up 0.14% this year, highlighting that the foreign exchange market has so far not expected the dollar There will be big moves. The underwhelming US dollar index is just the reason for the unexpected rebound in gold prices.
The VIX fear index, which represents stock market volatility, jumped 15 percent to 28.11 on Thursday, but was still below its previous peak of 31.6 on Feb. 14, indicating that investment in investors is still struggling despite the Dow’s biggest drop since November last year. The level of panic among people is converging, which means that the stock market is likely to be testing the bottom repeatedly in the near future, and there may not be a full-scale panic falling into a bear market.
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#
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